Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Brandon WilliamsPoints22
- Brandon WilliamsAssists3
- Olivier-Maxence ProsperRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints15
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–135
- Q42.1shot clock turnover86–135
- Q427.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes dunk (Jaden Hardy assists)86–135
- Q431.1Jaden Hardy defensive rebound84–135
- Q434.1Ousmane Dieng misses 25-foot step back jumpshot84–135
- Q451.0Alex Fudge makes 8-foot two point shot84–135
- Q41:03Ousmane Dieng makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot82–135
- Q41:08Olivier-Maxence Prosper lost ball turnover (Ousmane Dieng steals)82–133
- Q41:16Markieff Morris defensive rebound82–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:48Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 19-foot two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)DAL 0 – 2 OKC · OKC 79% → 82% +3OKC 79% → 82%+3 pts
- Q18:30Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)DAL 3 – 11 OKC · DAL 8% → 11% +3DAL 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q15:03Markieff Morris makes 26-foot three point shot (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)DAL 14 – 19 OKC · DAL 11% → 15% +4DAL 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q14:22Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)DAL 14 – 22 OKC · OKC 85% → 88% +4OKC 85% → 88%+4 pts
- Q12:50Jaylin Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)DAL 18 – 25 OKC · OKC 83% → 87% +4OKC 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 79%
- Fair odds
- OKC -379
- DAL +379 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 110.6 – 120.8 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −161 | +17 | DAL: Missing Dante Exum −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +229 Elo | OKC 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 119.93rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 113.012th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +6.92nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 117.43rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 110.65th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–15 | Road vs home | 32–83rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−161 Elo- Dante Exum sprained foot−18 Elo
Thunder
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.