San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Zach CollinsPoints20
- Tre JonesAssists7
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints26
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Josh GiddeyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–127
- Q46.1Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound89–127
- Q49.1Blake Wesley misses driving layup89–127
- Q425.1Lindy Waters III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Adam Flagler assists)89–127
- Q443.1Sidy Cissoko makes 23-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)89–124
- Q451.1Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound86–124
- Q455.2Adam Flagler misses 26-foot three point shot86–124
- Q458.0Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound86–124
- Q41:01Bismack Biyombo blocks RaiQuan Gray 's 3-foot layup86–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:45Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)SA 0 – 2 OKC · OKC 82% → 84% +3OKC 82% → 84%+3 pts
- Q110:58Chet Holmgren makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)SA 0 – 5 OKC · OKC 84% → 88% +4OKC 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q17:15Zach Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 7 – 13 OKC · SA 9% → 12% +3SA 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q15:11Jalen Williams makes two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)SA 11 – 17 OKC · OKC 86% → 88% +2OKC 86% → 88%+2 pts
- Q14:37Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot step back jumpshotSA 11 – 22 OKC · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -10
- OKC 83%
- Fair odds
- OKC -444
- SA +444 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.1 – 121.4 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | OKC and SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | +34 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +280 Elo | OKC 83.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.1 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 113.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.6 | Margin | +6.43rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 117.43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–30 | Road vs home | 30–83rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.