San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints18
- Victor WembanyamaAssists6
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds16
Grizzlies- Trey Jemison IIIPoints14
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists5
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–87
- Q43.0shot clock turnover102–87
- Q427.0Scotty Pippen Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2102–87
- Q427.0Grizzlies offensive team rebound102–86
- Q427.0Scotty Pippen Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2102–86
- Q427.0Jamaree Bouyea shooting foul102–86
- Q439.1Jamaree Bouyea makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (David Duke Jr. assists)102–86
- Q41:01Scotty Pippen Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2100–86
- Q41:01Scotty Pippen Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2100–85
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:25Julian Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)SA 26 – 30 MEM · SA 29% → 35% +7SA 29% → 35%+7 pts
- Q29:02GG Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zavier Simpson assists)SA 26 – 33 MEM · MEM 65% → 72% +7MEM 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q24:31Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malaki Branham assists)SA 40 – 41 MEM · SA 35% → 43% +8SA 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q310:30Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 53 – 53 MEM · SA 37% → 46% +9SA 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q36:37Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)SA 66 – 56 MEM · SA 69% → 77% +8SA 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- MEM 47%
- Fair odds
- MEM -128
- SA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.6 – 110.5 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +5 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Lamar Stevens −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +21 Elo | SA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.3 | Points scored | 105.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.9 | Margin | −6.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 105.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30102.8 | Pace | 99.916th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 26th of 309–30 | Road vs home | 9–2928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+5 Elo- Lamar Stevens left groin soreness−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–3 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.