Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints33
- De'Aaron FoxAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists4
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–112
- Q46.1Cason Wallace defensive rebound105–112
- Q410.0Davion Mitchell misses 23-foot three point jumper105–112
- Q418.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q418.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2105–111
- Q418.1Keon Ellis personal take foul105–110
- Q431.1Keon Ellis bad pass (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)105–110
- Q435.1Kings Full timeout105–110
- Q435.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2105–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:27De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)SAC 97 – 97 OKC · SAC 29% → 45% +16SAC 29% → 45%+16 pts
- Q44:38De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three pointer (Davion Mitchell assists)SAC 101 – 102 OKC · SAC 22% → 39% +17SAC 22% → 39%+17 pts
- Q43:06Jalen Williams makes 12-foot pullup jump shotSAC 102 – 104 OKC · OKC 54% → 69% +16OKC 54% → 69%+16 pts
- Q42:48Keon Ellis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)SAC 105 – 104 OKC · SAC 30% → 55% +25SAC 30% → 55%+25 pts
- Q41:16Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot two point shotSAC 105 – 108 OKC · OKC 65% → 85% +20OKC 65% → 85%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 65%
- Fair odds
- OKC -182
- SAC +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 112.6 – 117.2 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | +30 | SAC: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +109 Elo | OKC 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 119.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 113.514th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +6.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.38th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.210th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 29–83rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 2–1 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.