Sacramento Kings at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints20
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds20
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints21
- Dennis SchroderAssists6
- Noah ClowneyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–77
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–77
- Q410.2Noah Clowney defensive rebound107–77
- Q414.0JaVale McGee misses 29-foot three point jumper107–77
- Q428.2Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2107–77
- Q428.2Nets offensive team rebound107–76
- Q428.2Jalen Wilson misses free throw 1 of 2107–76
- Q428.2Chris Duarte loose ball foul107–76
- Q428.2Nets offensive team rebound107–76
- Q430.1Lonnie Walker IV misses 26-foot step back jumpshot107–76
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:17Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 3 – 2 BKN · SAC 54% → 60% +6SAC 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q16:19Jalen Wilson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)SAC 7 – 12 BKN · BKN 47% → 53% +7BKN 47% → 53%+7 pts
- Q15:34Davion Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 10 – 14 BKN · SAC 42% → 49% +7SAC 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q12:43Trey Lyles makes 26-foot three point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 19 – 15 BKN · SAC 59% → 66% +7SAC 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q29:29Keon Ellis makes 23-foot three point shot (Colby Jones assists)SAC 36 – 26 BKN · SAC 73% → 79% +6SAC 73% → 79%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2
- SAC 58%
- Fair odds
- SAC -138
- BKN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 111.0 – 108.5 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −7 | +11 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +57 Elo | SAC 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 111.224th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 113.616th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −2.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 114.321st of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.6 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 19–2023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.