Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Khris MiddletonPoints18
- Patrick BeverleyAssists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints23
- Jalen WilliamsAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–125
- Q47.1Lindy Waters III bad pass (TyTy Washington Jr. steals)107–125
- Q432.1MarJon Beauchamp makes 10-foot running pullup jump shot107–125
- Q435.1MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound105–125
- Q438.1Aaron Wiggins misses two point shot105–125
- Q452.2Ryan Rollins makes 22-foot three point shot (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)105–125
- Q457.0MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound102–125
- Q41:00MarJon Beauchamp blocks Aaron Wiggins 's 3-foot layup102–125
- Q41:16Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes dunk102–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:33Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 5 – 4 OKC · MIL 21% → 25% +5MIL 21% → 25%+5 pts
- Q17:30Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point shot (Jalen Williams assists)MIL 11 – 15 OKC · OKC 77% → 82% +5OKC 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q15:00Khris Middleton makes 26-foot three point shot (Brook Lopez assists)MIL 20 – 21 OKC · MIL 19% → 23% +5MIL 19% → 23%+5 pts
- Q13:51Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 23 – 26 OKC · MIL 16% → 20% +4MIL 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q28:14Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)MIL 43 – 50 OKC · OKC 80% → 85% +5OKC 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Fair odds
- OKC -326
- MIL +326 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.5 – 120.5 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1600 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −133 | −4 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +214 Elo | OKC 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 76.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 76.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 119.83rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 113.112th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +6.83rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 117.33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 110.74th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.410th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 31–83rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−133 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.