Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds6
Bucks- Bobby PortisPoints30
- Damian LillardAssists9
- Bobby PortisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–117
- Q411.1TyTy Washington Jr. defensive rebound99–117
- Q413.0Admiral Schofield misses driving floating jump shot99–117
- Q429.0Goga Bitadze defensive rebound99–117
- Q431.1Chris Livingston misses free throw 2 of 299–117
- Q431.1Chris Livingston makes free throw 1 of 299–117
- Q431.1Admiral Schofield shooting foul99–116
- Q433.1Chris Livingston defensive rebound99–116
- Q436.2Jett Howard misses 24-foot three point jumper99–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:10Joe Ingles makes 25-foot three point jumperORL 30 – 38 MIL · ORL 32% → 39% +7ORL 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q28:50Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)ORL 30 – 41 MIL · MIL 61% → 68% +7MIL 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q27:45Jae Crowder makes 23-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)ORL 32 – 44 MIL · MIL 64% → 71% +7MIL 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q27:27Cole Anthony makes 26-foot three pointerORL 35 – 44 MIL · ORL 29% → 36% +7ORL 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q24:54Jalen Suggs makes three point jumper (Markelle Fultz assists)ORL 40 – 50 MIL · ORL 26% → 33% +7ORL 26% → 33%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 60%
- Fair odds
- ORL -157
- MIL +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.3 – 106.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | −105 | ORL: Usual rotation · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +71 Elo | ORL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 119.54th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 116.521st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 116.75th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 113.719th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.