Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints22
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jaylen BrownRebounds10
Bucks- Patrick BeverleyPoints20
- Khris MiddletonAssists9
- Patrick BeverleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–104
- Q419.2Luke Kornet makes 2-foot dunk (Payton Pritchard assists)91–104
- Q427.1TyTy Washington Jr. enters the game for Khris Middleton89–104
- Q427.1Chris Livingston enters the game for Brook Lopez89–104
- Q427.1Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Patrick Beverley89–104
- Q427.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Damian Lillard89–104
- Q427.1shot clock turnover89–104
- Q451.0Patrick Beverley defensive rebound89–104
- Q453.1Oshae Brissett misses 28-foot three point jumper89–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:25Brook Lopez makes 28-foot three point shot (Khris Middleton assists)BOS 5 – 13 MIL · MIL 48% → 55% +6MIL 48% → 55%+6 pts
- Q17:11Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 8 – 13 MIL · BOS 45% → 51% +7BOS 45% → 51%+7 pts
- Q16:41Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three pointerBOS 11 – 15 MIL · BOS 47% → 53% +7BOS 47% → 53%+7 pts
- Q16:23Brook Lopez makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)BOS 11 – 18 MIL · MIL 47% → 53% +7MIL 47% → 53%+7 pts
- Q15:47Khris Middleton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Patrick Beverley assists)BOS 11 – 21 MIL · MIL 54% → 60% +7MIL 54% → 60%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 75%
- Fair odds
- BOS -168
- MIL +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.0 – 113.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1721 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +8 | BOS: Missing Al Horford −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +191 Elo | BOS 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.8 | Points scored | 119.74th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.2 | Points allowed | 116.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | +2.99th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.2 | Offense rating | 116.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 113.919th of 30 |
| 20th of 3098.8 | Pace | 101.97th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–13 | Road vs home | 29–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+24 Elo- Al Horford left toe−2 Elo
Bucks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.