Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds9
Clippers- James HardenPoints22
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–93
- Q40.1(00:00.3) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)96–93
- Q40.1Paul George makes 29-foot three pointer96–93
- Q47.0Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 296–90
- Q47.0Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 295–90
- Q47.0James Harden personal take foul94–90
- Q49.1Maxi Kleber offensive rebound94–90
- Q412.0Kyrie Irving misses free throw 2 of 294–90
- Q412.0Norman Powell enters the game for Russell Westbrook94–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:36Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DAL 67 – 71 LAC · LAC 55% → 68% +13LAC 55% → 68%+13 pts
- Q47:43P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)DAL 73 – 73 LAC · DAL 34% → 49% +15DAL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q47:02Luka Doncic makes 27-foot step back jumpshotDAL 76 – 73 LAC · DAL 49% → 65% +16DAL 49% → 65%+16 pts
- Q46:14Kyrie Irving makes 29-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 79 – 73 LAC · DAL 66% → 80% +14DAL 66% → 80%+14 pts
- Q42:08Maxi Kleber makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 87 – 81 LAC · DAL 77% → 93% +16DAL 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAC 49%
- Fair odds
- LAC -108
- DAL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 111.7 – 112.3 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −3 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +4 Elo | DAL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 115.612th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 112.310th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +3.37th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 116.74th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.020th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–3 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.