LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints20
- James HardenAssists13
- Paul GeorgeRebounds11
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–114
- Q48.1A.J. Lawson defensive rebound101–114
- Q411.1Bones Hyland misses 27-foot three point jumper101–114
- Q415.1Kobe Brown offensive rebound101–114
- Q420.2Norman Powell misses 25-foot three point jumper101–114
- Q431.0Amir Coffey defensive rebound101–114
- Q434.0A.J. Lawson misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot101–114
- Q442.1Josh Green offensive rebound101–114
- Q444.1Jaden Hardy misses 15-foot pullup jump shot101–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:44Josh Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAC 20 – 23 DAL · DAL 68% → 74% +6DAL 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q211.1Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot dunk (Kyrie Irving assists)LAC 52 – 52 DAL · DAL 59% → 64% +6DAL 59% → 64%+6 pts
- Q311:02Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)LAC 52 – 57 DAL · DAL 69% → 77% +7DAL 69% → 77%+7 pts
- Q310:12Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point shot (P.J. Washington assists)LAC 52 – 60 DAL · DAL 77% → 83% +6DAL 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q33:11P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)LAC 67 – 77 DAL · DAL 83% → 89% +6DAL 83% → 89%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6.5
- DAL 74%
- Fair odds
- DAL -231
- LAC +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.3 – 112.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | +40 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | LAC crossed 2 time zones and DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +185 Elo | DAL 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 69.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 4–4 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- May 1DAL 123 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- Apr 28LAC 116 @ DAL 111PlayoffsPicked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 26LAC 90 @ DAL 101PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Hit
- Apr 23DAL 96 @ LAC 93PlayoffsPicked LAC 52%Miss
- Apr 21DAL 97 @ LAC 109PlayoffsPicked DAL 61%Miss
- Dec 20LAC 120 @ DAL 111Picked LAC 55%Hit
- Nov 25DAL 88 @ LAC 107Picked DAL 57%Miss
- Nov 10LAC 126 @ DAL 144Picked DAL 60%Hit