LA Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints33
- Paul GeorgeAssists8
- Paul GeorgeRebounds6
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints40
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–111
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound116–111
- Q40.0Kyrie Irving misses 24-foot three point jumper116–111
- Q43.1Mavericks offensive team rebound116–111
- Q45.1Luka Doncic misses 23-foot three point jumper116–111
- Q46.1Kyrie Irving offensive rebound116–111
- Q48.1Kyrie Irving misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot116–111
- Q413.0Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2116–111
- Q413.0Luka Doncic enters the game for Josh Green115–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:03Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotLAC 98 – 98 DAL · DAL 37% → 56% +19DAL 37% → 56%+19 pts
- Q43:01Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAC 104 – 103 DAL · DAL 24% → 47% +23DAL 24% → 47%+23 pts
- Q42:15Kyrie Irving makes driving layupLAC 104 – 105 DAL · DAL 45% → 64% +19DAL 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q41:55Paul George makes 23-foot step back jumpshotLAC 107 – 105 DAL · LAC 36% → 66% +30LAC 36% → 66%+30 pts
- Q41:20James Harden makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotLAC 109 – 105 DAL · LAC 71% → 88% +17LAC 71% → 88%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6
- DAL 72%
- Fair odds
- DAL -224
- LAC +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.3 – 112.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | +38 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +165 Elo | DAL 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.7 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.