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Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast

FinalDAL leads series 3-2

Away

Mavericks

50-32

123–93

at

Home

Clippers

51-31

DAL 56%LAC 44%

You didn't pick this one.

crypto.com Arena · TNT, FanDuel SN SoCal, ClipperVision, KTXA

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.

LAC favored DAL favored113 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4LAC50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mavericks
Clippers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game123–93
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–93
  • Q48.0shot clock turnover123–93
  • Q430.0Dante Exum defensive rebound123–93
  • Q433.1Bones Hyland misses 27-foot three point jumper123–93
  • Q443.0Jaden Hardy makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)123–93
  • Q452.1Bones Hyland makes 11-foot pullup jump shot120–93
  • Q41:01Dante Exum makes 13-foot pullup jump shot120–91
  • Q41:14Brandon Boston Jr. makes two point shot118–91
  • Q41:17Brandon Boston Jr. defensive rebound118–89

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q14:32James Harden makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDAL 19 – 20 LAC · LAC 40% → 47% +7
  2. Q13:14Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DAL 21 – 23 LAC · LAC 42% → 49% +7
  3. Q29:23Maxi Kleber makes 24-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 32 – 27 LAC · DAL 60% → 67% +7
  4. Q29:01Maxi Kleber makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 35 – 29 LAC · DAL 62% → 69% +7
  5. Q22:39Maxi Kleber makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 51 – 44 LAC · DAL 65% → 73% +7

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Mavericks 56%

LeanHit
DAL 56%LAC 44%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DAL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL -2
DAL 59%
Fair odds
DAL -128
LAC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 110.6 – 108.7 LAC
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALLACWhy
Team rating15641546Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+36−41DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsDAL +60 EloDAL 58.5%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 55.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 56.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Dallas Mavericks and LA Clippers compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatLAC
7th of 30117.9Points scored115.612th of 30
20th of 30115.6Points allowed112.310th of 30
14th of 30+2.2Margin+3.37th of 30
8th of 30115.6Offense rating116.74th of 30
18th of 30113.5Defense rating113.417th of 30
6th of 30101.8Pace99.020th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 106–410th of 30
5th of 3025–16Road vs home25–1612th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Mavericks

+36 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Clippers

−41 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MavericksClippers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

DAL 3–4 LAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.