Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints23
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–90
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–90
- Q42.0Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound98–90
- Q42.0Jamal Murray misses 29-foot three point shot98–90
- Q49.1Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 2 of 298–90
- Q49.1Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 1 of 297–90
- Q49.1Jamal Murray personal take foul96–90
- Q413.0Nikola Jokic makes driving dunk96–90
- Q419.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound96–88
- Q420.1Jaden McDaniels misses free throw 2 of 296–88
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31.1Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIN 66 – 67 DEN · MIN 33% → 45% +12MIN 33% → 45%+12 pts
- Q410:08Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Christian Braun assists)MIN 72 – 72 DEN · DEN 38% → 51% +13DEN 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q49:26Mike Conley makes 26-foot step back jumpshotMIN 75 – 72 DEN · MIN 49% → 63% +14MIN 49% → 63%+14 pts
- Q48:12Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)MIN 77 – 75 DEN · DEN 27% → 41% +14DEN 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q46:46Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumperMIN 81 – 78 DEN · DEN 21% → 35% +14DEN 21% → 35%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -0.5
- DEN 48%
- Fair odds
- DEN -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 103.5 – 104.2 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1658 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +7 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- May 16DEN 70 @ MIN 115PlayoffsPicked MIN 51%Hit
- May 14MIN 97 @ DEN 112PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit
- May 12DEN 115 @ MIN 107PlayoffsPicked MIN 56%Miss
- May 10DEN 117 @ MIN 90PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Miss
- May 6MIN 106 @ DEN 80PlayoffsPicked DEN 59%Miss
- May 4MIN 106 @ DEN 99PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Miss
- Apr 10MIN 107 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Mar 29MIN 111 @ DEN 98Picked DEN 54%Miss