Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints25
- Anthony EdwardsAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints41
- Aaron GordonAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–116
- Q47.1Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound107–116
- Q49.1Leonard Miller misses free throw 2 of 2107–116
- Q49.1Leonard Miller makes free throw 1 of 2107–116
- Q49.1Jay Huff shooting foul106–116
- Q415.1Leonard Miller defensive rebound106–116
- Q417.1Julian Strawther misses free throw 2 of 2106–116
- Q417.1Jalen Pickett enters the game for Reggie Jackson106–116
- Q417.1Nuggets offensive team rebound106–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:41Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)MIN 66 – 65 DEN · DEN 40% → 50% +10DEN 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q34:50Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)MIN 72 – 70 DEN · DEN 36% → 46% +10DEN 36% → 46%+10 pts
- Q33:31Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)MIN 76 – 72 DEN · MIN 51% → 62% +11MIN 51% → 62%+11 pts
- Q32:10Reggie Jackson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)MIN 80 – 80 DEN · DEN 41% → 53% +11DEN 41% → 53%+11 pts
- Q48:29Mike Conley makes 25-foot three pointer (Naz Reid assists)MIN 87 – 88 DEN · MIN 29% → 43% +14MIN 29% → 43%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 53%
- Fair odds
- DEN -120
- MIN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 104.9 – 106.3 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1640 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DEN and MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | +28 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +19 Elo | DEN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 114.614th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.2 | Points allowed | 109.56th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.0 | Margin | +5.24th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 111.29th of 30 |
| 20th of 3098.9 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–14 | Road vs home | 32–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.