Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Corey KispertPoints25
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Anthony GillRebounds9
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints51
- Anthony EdwardsAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–130
- Q47.2Jules Bernard makes driving layup121–130
- Q415.0Daishen Nix lost ball turnover (Eugene Omoruyi steals)119–130
- Q434.1Jules Bernard makes two point shot119–130
- Q440.0Jules Bernard defensive rebound117–130
- Q443.1Daishen Nix misses 25-foot three point jumper117–130
- Q458.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes driving layup (Jared Butler assists)117–130
- Q41:11Eugene Omoruyi enters the game for Corey Kispert115–130
- Q41:11Jules Bernard enters the game for Anthony Gill115–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:12Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 81 – 74 MIN · WSH 39% → 49% +9WSH 39% → 49%+9 pts
- Q31:38Eugene Omoruyi makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 92 – 92 MIN · WSH 22% → 31% +10WSH 22% → 31%+10 pts
- Q31:19Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)WSH 92 – 95 MIN · MIN 68% → 78% +10MIN 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q410:44Mike Conley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)WSH 97 – 102 MIN · MIN 74% → 84% +9MIN 74% → 84%+9 pts
- Q48:06Mike Conley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)WSH 103 – 107 MIN · MIN 69% → 81% +12MIN 69% → 81%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -13.5
- MIN 90%
- Fair odds
- MIN -450
- WSH +450 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 104.2 – 115.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1306 | 1639 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | +9 | WSH: Missing Tristan Vukcevic −11, Tyus Jones −4, Richaun Holmes −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +382 Elo | MIN 90.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 106.01st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.4 | Margin | +7.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 106.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.3 | Pace | 98.820th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 308–31 | Road vs home | 28–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−28 Elo- Tristan Vukcevic left knee soreness−11 Elo
- Tyus Jones back injury−4 Elo
- Richaun Holmes left toe−2 Elo
Timberwolves
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.