Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints32
- Jordan PooleAssists12
- Patrick Baldwin Jr.Rebounds11
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints31
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists13
- Kelly OlynykRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–130
- Q45.1Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound122–130
- Q49.0Tristan Vukcevic misses 31-foot three point jumper122–130
- Q410.1Wizards Full timeout122–130
- Q410.1Ochai Agbaji makes free throw 2 of 2122–130
- Q410.1Raptors offensive team rebound122–129
- Q410.1Ochai Agbaji misses free throw 1 of 2122–129
- Q410.1(00:10.5) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–129
- Q410.1Deni Avdija personal foul122–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:21Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point shot (Eugene Omoruyi assists)WSH 38 – 44 TOR · WSH 27% → 35% +7WSH 27% → 35%+7 pts
- Q22:24Corey Kispert makes 28-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)WSH 45 – 53 TOR · WSH 22% → 29% +7WSH 22% → 29%+7 pts
- Q21:36Corey Kispert makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 48 – 55 TOR · WSH 24% → 31% +7WSH 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q241.2Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)WSH 48 – 60 TOR · TOR 74% → 81% +6TOR 74% → 81%+6 pts
- Q38:59Jordan Poole makes 28-foot three point jumperWSH 62 – 71 TOR · WSH 17% → 24% +7WSH 17% → 24%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- TOR +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 116.7 – 116.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1360 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | −84 | WSH: Missing Anthony Gill −5, Richaun Holmes −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 112.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 118.624th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.4 | Margin | −6.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 110.524th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.2 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–30 | Road vs home | 13–2624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−24 Elo- Anthony Gill injury/illness−5 Elo
- Richaun Holmes injury/illness−1 Elo
Raptors
−84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.