Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds7
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints44
- Mike ConleyAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–107
- Q421.1Christian Braun defensive rebound115–107
- Q424.1Mike Conley misses 22-foot three point jumper115–107
- Q425.1Christian Braun enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.115–107
- Q425.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker115–107
- Q425.1Rudy Gobert enters the game for Jaden McDaniels115–107
- Q425.1Timberwolves Full timeout115–107
- Q425.1Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Aaron Gordon assists)115–107
- Q428.1Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Christian Braun113–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:26Reggie Jackson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 26 – 22 MIN · DEN 47% → 54% +7DEN 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q211:44Justin Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 32 – 24 MIN · DEN 57% → 64% +7DEN 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q248.1Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three pointerDEN 56 – 49 MIN · MIN 27% → 34% +8MIN 27% → 34%+8 pts
- Q220.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 59 – 49 MIN · DEN 66% → 74% +8DEN 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q35:05Anthony Edwards makes 28-foot three pointerDEN 81 – 71 MIN · MIN 15% → 22% +7MIN 15% → 22%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -126
- DEN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 103.5 – 105.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1622 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +9 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +45 Elo | MIN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 106.51st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +6.53rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 107.21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 98.822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.
- May 10DEN 117 @ MIN 90PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Miss
- May 6MIN 106 @ DEN 80PlayoffsPicked DEN 59%Miss
- May 4MIN 106 @ DEN 99PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Miss
- Apr 10MIN 107 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Mar 29MIN 111 @ DEN 98Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Mar 19DEN 115 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 62%Hit
- Nov 1DEN 89 @ MIN 110Picked DEN 67%Miss