Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints40
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints49
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Kevin DurantRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–116
- Q43.1Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound122–116
- Q46.0Anthony Edwards blocks Devin Booker 's 2-foot two point shot122–116
- Q411.2Kevin Durant defensive rebound122–116
- Q414.1Mike Conley misses free throw 2 of 2122–116
- Q414.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns122–116
- Q414.1Jaden McDaniels enters the game for Kyle Anderson122–116
- Q414.1Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2122–116
- Q414.1Jusuf Nurkic personal take foul121–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:34Anthony Edwards makes 28-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 105 – 101 PHX · MIN 59% → 75% +16MIN 59% → 75%+16 pts
- Q44:32Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)MIN 107 – 107 PHX · PHX 28% → 47% +19PHX 28% → 47%+19 pts
- Q44:13Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot step back jumpshotMIN 110 – 107 PHX · MIN 53% → 72% +20MIN 53% → 72%+20 pts
- Q43:25Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIN 113 – 109 PHX · MIN 60% → 80% +20MIN 60% → 80%+20 pts
- Q42:14Anthony Edwards makes driving dunkMIN 115 – 111 PHX · MIN 70% → 84% +14MIN 70% → 84%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 63%
- Fair odds
- MIN -141
- PHX +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.7 – 107.1 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −10 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +94 Elo | MIN 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 116.210th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 113.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +3.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 115.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 112.513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.015th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.