Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Kings- Domantas SabonisPoints25
- Domantas SabonisAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–107
- Q41.1De'Aaron Fox lost ball turnover (Bradley Beal steals)108–107
- Q46.1Bradley Beal personal foul108–107
- Q48.1Royce O'Neale enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic108–107
- Q48.1Kings Full timeout108–107
- Q48.1Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 2 of 2108–107
- Q48.1Suns offensive team rebound107–107
- Q48.1Jusuf Nurkic misses free throw 1 of 2107–107
- Q48.1Domantas Sabonis loose ball foul107–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:52Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 96 – 98 SAC · PHX 24% → 40% +16PHX 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q41:54Harrison Barnes makes two point shotPHX 103 – 107 SAC · SAC 69% → 85% +16SAC 69% → 85%+16 pts
- Q41:02Bradley Beal makes two point shotPHX 105 – 107 SAC · PHX 8% → 25% +16PHX 8% → 25%+16 pts
- Q451.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 107 – 107 SAC · PHX 35% → 51% +15PHX 35% → 51%+15 pts
- Q48.1Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 108 – 107 SAC · PHX 50% → 84% +34PHX 50% → 84%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 58%
- Fair odds
- PHX -124
- SAC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 113.7 – 112.0 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | −4 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +55 Elo | PHX 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 115.318th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +1.317th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 114.913th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 113.618th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.2 | Pace | 100.614th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 23–1616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 2–2 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.