New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints31
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints33
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–123
- Q417.1Jose Alvarado defensive rebound135–123
- Q421.2Sasha Vezenkov misses 25-foot step back jumpshot135–123
- Q444.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2135–123
- Q444.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl enters the game for Zion Williamson134–123
- Q444.1Jalen Slawson enters the game for Harrison Barnes134–123
- Q444.1Sasha Vezenkov enters the game for Davion Mitchell134–123
- Q444.1Kessler Edwards enters the game for Keegan Murray134–123
- Q444.1Chris Duarte enters the game for Domantas Sabonis134–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:09Jose Alvarado makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 87 – 78 SAC · NO 69% → 78% +9NO 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q32:58Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chris Duarte assists)NO 87 – 81 SAC · SAC 21% → 30% +9SAC 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q31:28Jose Alvarado makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)NO 93 – 83 SAC · NO 74% → 83% +9NO 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q354.1Trey Lyles makes 25-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)NO 93 – 86 SAC · SAC 17% → 25% +9SAC 17% → 25%+9 pts
- Q341.1Dyson Daniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 96 – 86 SAC · NO 75% → 83% +9NO 75% → 83%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 51%
- Fair odds
- SAC -114
- NO +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 108.9 – 110.0 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −3 | NO: Usual rotation · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +5 Elo | SAC 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 116.59th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +1.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 114.813th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.3 | Pace | 100.614th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3026–14 | Road vs home | 23–1515th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 4–0 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.