Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Bradley BealPoints36
- Jusuf NurkicAssists8
- Bradley BealRebounds6
Timberwolves- Rudy GobertPoints21
- Anthony EdwardsAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–106
- Q412.1Josh Minott makes dunk (Monte Morris assists)125–106
- Q424.0Nassir Little makes 19-foot step back jumpshot125–104
- Q438.1Wendell Moore Jr. makes 13-foot two point shot (Monte Morris assists)123–104
- Q448.2Isaiah Thomas makes 23-foot three point jumper (David Roddy assists)123–102
- Q41:05Leonard Miller makes two point shot120–102
- Q41:05Leonard Miller offensive rebound120–100
- Q41:07Leonard Miller misses driving layup120–100
- Q41:14Wendell Moore Jr. defensive rebound120–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:49Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)PHX 17 – 11 MIN · MIN 45% → 52% +7MIN 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q17:35Bradley Beal makes 24-foot three pointerPHX 20 – 11 MIN · PHX 48% → 55% +7PHX 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q16:01Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 23 – 14 MIN · PHX 49% → 56% +7PHX 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q311:16Mike Conley makes 24-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)PHX 66 – 56 MIN · MIN 24% → 32% +7MIN 24% → 32%+7 pts
- Q37:30Devin Booker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 79 – 64 MIN · PHX 77% → 84% +7PHX 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Fair odds
- MIN -185
- PHX +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 105.7 – 110.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1633 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +33 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | PHX crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +135 Elo | MIN 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 113.118th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 106.31st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +6.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 106.91st of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.1 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 9th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 30–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 2–0 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.