Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints19
- Trae YoungAssists7
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Timberwolves- Rudy GobertPoints25
- Mike ConleyAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–109
- Q40.1Rudy Gobert offensive rebound106–109
- Q43.0Kyle Anderson misses free throw 2 of 2106–109
- Q43.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound106–109
- Q43.0Kyle Anderson misses free throw 1 of 2106–109
- Q43.0Vit Krejci personal take foul106–109
- Q44.1Kobe Bufkin makes tip shot106–109
- Q44.1Kobe Bufkin offensive rebound104–109
- Q45.0Rudy Gobert blocks Vit Krejci 's 3-foot driving layup104–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:39Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three pointerATL 98 – 96 MIN · ATL 37% → 57% +20ATL 37% → 57%+20 pts
- Q42:29Karl-Anthony Towns makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)ATL 100 – 101 MIN · MIN 37% → 64% +27MIN 37% → 64%+27 pts
- Q41:47Kobe Bufkin makes driving layupATL 102 – 103 MIN · ATL 18% → 35% +17ATL 18% → 35%+17 pts
- Q449.1Anthony Edwards makes 13-foot two point shotATL 102 – 105 MIN · MIN 68% → 90% +22MIN 68% → 90%+22 pts
- Q421.1Bruno Fernando makes 1-foot dunk (Vit Krejci assists)ATL 104 – 105 MIN · ATL 3% → 26% +23ATL 3% → 26%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7.5
- MIN 77%
- Fair odds
- MIN -242
- ATL +242 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 108.2 – 115.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +34 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +206 Elo | MIN 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 113.118th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 106.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.7 | Margin | +6.82nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 106.91st of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–24 | Road vs home | 29–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.