Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints27
- Tre MannAssists7
- Grant WilliamsRebounds6
Hawks- Vit KrejciPoints19
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Mouhamed GueyeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–114
- Q41.0Trent Forrest bad pass (Tre Mann steals)115–114
- Q43.1Hawks Full timeout115–114
- Q43.1Miles Bridges makes two point shot115–114
- Q47.1Miles Bridges defensive rebound113–114
- Q49.1Bruno Fernando misses layup113–114
- Q429.1Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2113–114
- Q429.1Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2112–114
- Q429.1Bruno Fernando shooting foul111–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:07Grant Williams makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotCHA 111 – 108 ATL · CHA 55% → 74% +18CHA 55% → 74%+18 pts
- Q41:48Trent Forrest makes 5-foot two point shotCHA 111 – 110 ATL · ATL 24% → 43% +19ATL 24% → 43%+19 pts
- Q41:13Trent Forrest makes driving layupCHA 111 – 112 ATL · ATL 40% → 66% +26ATL 40% → 66%+26 pts
- Q434.1Trent Forrest makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotCHA 111 – 114 ATL · ATL 70% → 93% +23ATL 70% → 93%+23 pts
- Q43.1Miles Bridges makes two point shotCHA 115 – 114 ATL · CHA 5% → 94% +89CHA 5% → 94%+89 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -7.5
- ATL 77%
- Fair odds
- ATL -236
- CHA +236 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 108.8 – 115.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −10 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Dejounte Murray −29 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +211 Elo | ATL 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 118.66th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 120.328th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.4 | Margin | −1.720th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 115.412th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 117.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–30 | Road vs home | 21–1919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−10 Elo- Dejounte Murray quad injury−29 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.