Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints20
- Bradley BealAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints25
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–105
- Q40.0Suns offensive team rebound93–105
- Q40.1Nassir Little misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot93–105
- Q41.1shot clock turnover93–105
- Q425.1Nassir Little makes 11-foot two point shot93–105
- Q436.0Bol Bol defensive rebound91–105
- Q440.2Wendell Moore Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper91–105
- Q41:01Nassir Little makes 25-foot three point jumper91–105
- Q41:12Wendell Moore Jr. personal foul88–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:50Mike Conley makes 25-foot three pointer (Jaden McDaniels assists)PHX 44 – 40 MIN · MIN 41% → 49% +8MIN 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q37:50Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)PHX 57 – 60 MIN · MIN 58% → 67% +9MIN 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q37:07Bradley Beal makes 22-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 60 – 60 MIN · PHX 33% → 42% +9PHX 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q36:38Devin Booker makes 24-foot three pointerPHX 63 – 60 MIN · PHX 42% → 52% +10PHX 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q410:48Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 76 – 82 MIN · PHX 13% → 21% +8PHX 13% → 21%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 64%
- Fair odds
- MIN -165
- PHX +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 106.5 – 110.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | +20 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +102 Elo | MIN 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 106.51st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +6.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 107.21st of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.822nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 3–1 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.