Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Bradley BealAssists6
- Kevin DurantRebounds7
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints33
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–120
- Q417.1Josh Okogie makes dunk95–120
- Q420.1Jordan McLaughlin lost ball turnover (Josh Okogie steals)93–120
- Q437.0Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound93–120
- Q439.0Isaiah Thomas misses driving layup93–120
- Q447.1Luka Garza makes 25-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)93–120
- Q41:04Monte Morris defensive rebound93–117
- Q41:06Isaiah Thomas misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot93–117
- Q41:13Luka Garza makes 2-foot dunk (Monte Morris assists)93–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:53Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)PHX 22 – 20 MIN · MIN 48% → 55% +7MIN 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q12:25Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)PHX 22 – 23 MIN · MIN 55% → 62% +7MIN 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q11:06Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 25 – 25 MIN · PHX 34% → 40% +7PHX 34% → 40%+7 pts
- Q10.1Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 28 – 27 MIN · PHX 36% → 43% +7PHX 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q28:29Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three pointer (Mike Conley assists)PHX 34 – 38 MIN · MIN 61% → 68% +7MIN 61% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- PHX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 106.9 – 110.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +22 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +73 Elo | MIN 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 106.51st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +6.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 107.21st of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.822nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 3–0 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.