Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints36
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Suns- Bradley BealPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–109
- Q420.0Timberwolves defensive team rebound126–109
- Q420.1Royce O'Neale misses 27-foot three point jumper126–109
- Q428.1David Roddy enters the game for Bradley Beal126–109
- Q428.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2126–109
- Q428.1Wendell Moore Jr. enters the game for Rudy Gobert125–109
- Q428.1Josh Minott enters the game for Mike Conley125–109
- Q428.1Leonard Miller enters the game for Anthony Edwards125–109
- Q428.1Luka Garza enters the game for Jaden McDaniels125–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:53Anthony Edwards makes 29-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 25 – 22 PHX · MIN 55% → 62% +7MIN 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q25:49Mike Conley makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Naz Reid assists)MIN 47 – 44 PHX · MIN 54% → 62% +8MIN 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q21:56Mike Conley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 57 – 51 PHX · MIN 62% → 70% +8MIN 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q38:35Mike Conley makes 26-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 66 – 58 PHX · MIN 69% → 77% +8MIN 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q38:09Karl-Anthony Towns makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 69 – 58 PHX · MIN 77% → 83% +7MIN 77% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- PHX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 108.4 – 106.8 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1631 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −3 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +59 Elo | MIN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 116.210th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 113.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +3.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 115.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 112.513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.015th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.