Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints24
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints19
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Anthony EdwardsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–90
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–90
- Q420.1Julian Strawther defensive rebound117–90
- Q422.1Monte Morris misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot117–90
- Q427.1Zeke Nnaji makes tip shot117–90
- Q427.1Zeke Nnaji offensive rebound115–90
- Q428.1Peyton Watson misses driving layup115–90
- Q444.1Peyton Watson defensive rebound115–90
- Q446.1Jordan McLaughlin misses free throw 2 of 2115–90
- Q446.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound115–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:29Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)DEN 9 – 9 MIN · MIN 56% → 62% +6MIN 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q154.2Justin Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 26 – 18 MIN · DEN 51% → 58% +7DEN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q211:23Justin Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 31 – 20 MIN · DEN 59% → 65% +7DEN 59% → 65%+7 pts
- Q210:58Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 34 – 20 MIN · DEN 66% → 72% +6DEN 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q210:40Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)DEN 34 – 23 MIN · MIN 28% → 34% +6MIN 28% → 34%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Fair odds
- MIN -165
- DEN +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 102.6 – 106.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1681 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +27 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +138 Elo | MIN 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 106.51st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +6.53rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 107.21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 98.822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 30–115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.