Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Aaron GordonRebounds15
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints33
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–105
- Q42.2Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2112–105
- Q42.2Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2111–105
- Q42.2Austin Reaves personal take foul110–105
- Q44.0Austin Reaves makes 31-foot running pullup jump shot (LeBron James assists)110–105
- Q47.0LeBron James defensive rebound110–102
- Q48.1Aaron Gordon misses free throw 2 of 2110–102
- Q48.1Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2110–102
- Q48.1Anthony Davis personal take foul109–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:07Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 58 – 55 LAL · DEN 49% → 58% +9DEN 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q37:07Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 67 – 61 LAL · DEN 59% → 68% +9DEN 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q33:23Aaron Gordon makes 1-foot dunk (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 75 – 69 LAL · DEN 64% → 70% +7DEN 64% → 70%+7 pts
- Q32:35Reggie Jackson makes 26-foot three point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 81 – 69 LAL · DEN 80% → 87% +7DEN 80% → 87%+7 pts
- Q46:10LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)DEN 97 – 89 LAL · LAL 6% → 12% +7LAL 6% → 12%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- LAL 45%
- Fair odds
- LAL -105
- DEN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.7 – 115.1 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1627 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +39 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +34 Elo | DEN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 117.323rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +0.819th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 114.115th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 102.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 28–147th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 5–0 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.