Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints21
- Christian BraunAssists5
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints44
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists7
- GG JacksonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–111
- Q46.1shot clock turnover126–111
- Q428.1Braxton Key defensive rebound126–111
- Q430.0GG Jackson misses 23-foot jumper126–111
- Q436.2Braxton Key makes free throw 2 of 2126–111
- Q436.2Braxton Key makes free throw 1 of 2125–111
- Q436.2Jake LaRavia personal foul124–111
- Q436.2Braxton Key defensive rebound124–111
- Q439.2GG Jackson misses 26-foot three point jumper124–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:15Justin Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 27 – 22 MEM · DEN 74% → 80% +5DEN 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q210:50Christian Braun makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 32 – 30 MEM · DEN 67% → 74% +6DEN 67% → 74%+6 pts
- Q210:31GG Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)DEN 32 – 33 MEM · MEM 26% → 33% +6MEM 26% → 33%+6 pts
- Q28:48Peyton Watson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 39 – 33 MEM · DEN 75% → 81% +6DEN 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q24:06GG Jackson makes 24-foot step back jumpshotDEN 51 – 47 MEM · MEM 17% → 23% +6MEM 17% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -10.5
- DEN 84%
- Fair odds
- DEN -266
- MEM +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 109.9 – 102.5 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1347 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | −26 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +294 Elo | DEN 84.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 105.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.1 | Margin | −6.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 105.330th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 99.916th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 9th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 9–3128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−26 Elo- Brandon Clarke right hand−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 3–0 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.