Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints37
- D'Angelo RussellAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints31
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists6
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–120
- Q40.1Jordan Goodwin makes two point shot123–120
- Q40.1Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound123–118
- Q43.0Jake LaRavia misses 25-foot three point shot123–118
- Q45.0Grizzlies defensive team rebound123–118
- Q45.0LeBron James misses technical free throw123–118
- Q45.0Taylor Jenkins technical foul123–118
- Q45.0Grizzlies Full timeout123–118
- Q45.0LeBron James makes two point shot123–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:40GG Jackson makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 115 – 114 MEM · MEM 16% → 37% +21MEM 16% → 37%+21 pts
- Q41:58GG Jackson makes driving dunkLAL 117 – 116 MEM · MEM 19% → 36% +17MEM 19% → 36%+17 pts
- Q41:06Jake LaRavia makes free throw 2 of 2LAL 117 – 118 MEM · MEM 47% → 61% +14MEM 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q444.1LeBron James makes two point shot (Taurean Prince assists)LAL 119 – 118 MEM · LAL 36% → 68% +33LAL 36% → 68%+33 pts
- Q415.1LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2LAL 120 – 118 MEM · LAL 77% → 93% +16LAL 77% → 93%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7.5
- LAL 77%
- Fair odds
- LAL -209
- MEM +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.7 – 110.1 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1349 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | −38 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +207 Elo | LAL 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 105.630th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 112.511th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −7.025th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 105.130th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.916th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 9–3028th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−38 Elo- Brandon Clarke right hand−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 2–1 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.