Memphis Grizzlies at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jake LaRaviaPoints32
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists6
- Trey Jemison IIIRebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–110
- Q43.1shot clock turnover98–110
- Q425.1Jack White bad pass (Pete Nance steals)98–110
- Q428.0Jack White offensive rebound98–110
- Q431.1Scotty Pippen Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper98–110
- Q442.1Lamar Stevens defensive rebound98–110
- Q442.1Isaiah Mobley misses tip shot98–110
- Q442.1Isaiah Mobley offensive rebound98–110
- Q447.1Pete Nance misses 8-foot two point shot98–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:22Jake LaRavia makes 28-foot three point shot (Zavier Simpson assists)MEM 48 – 45 CLE · MEM 33% → 41% +8MEM 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q27.0Jake LaRavia makes 28-foot step back jumpshot (Zavier Simpson assists)MEM 51 – 46 CLE · MEM 39% → 47% +9MEM 39% → 47%+9 pts
- Q39:12Lamar Stevens makes 27-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 56 – 50 CLE · MEM 43% → 52% +9MEM 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q38:16Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Darius Garland assists)MEM 56 – 55 CLE · CLE 53% → 63% +9CLE 53% → 63%+9 pts
- Q34:39Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)MEM 59 – 65 CLE · CLE 74% → 81% +8CLE 74% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 78%
- Fair odds
- CLE -272
- MEM +272 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 101.7 – 109.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1353 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | +14 | MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −36 | MEM crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +220 Elo | CLE 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.7 | Points scored | 112.521st of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 110.17th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.9 | Margin | +2.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 110.96th of 30 |
| 16th of 3099.9 | Pace | 98.625th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3018–22 | Road vs home | 23–1413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−20 Elo- Brandon Clarke right hand−9 Elo
Cavaliers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.