Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints34
- Tre JonesAssists10
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–121
- Q40.25 second violation120–121
- Q40.2Spurs Full timeout120–121
- Q40.2Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Devonte' Graham120–121
- Q40.2Spurs Full timeout120–121
- Q40.2Nuggets Full timeout120–121
- Q40.2Devonte' Graham makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Tre Jones assists)120–121
- Q49.0Tre Jones defensive rebound120–119
- Q49.0Nikola Jokic misses 16-foot jumper120–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:42Devonte' Graham makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)DEN 118 – 115 SA · SA 8% → 23% +15SA 8% → 23%+15 pts
- Q41:48Tre Jones makes two point shotDEN 118 – 117 SA · SA 19% → 37% +18SA 19% → 37%+18 pts
- Q41:19Aaron Gordon makes tip shotDEN 120 – 117 SA · DEN 65% → 84% +20DEN 65% → 84%+20 pts
- Q430.1Devonte' Graham makes driving layupDEN 120 – 119 SA · SA 6% → 29% +23SA 6% → 29%+23 pts
- Q40.2Devonte' Graham makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Tre Jones assists)DEN 120 – 121 SA · SA <1% → >99% +100SA <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -5.5
- DEN 71%
- Fair odds
- DEN -178
- SA +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.2 – 108.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1618 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +53 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +153 Elo | DEN 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 111.823rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 118.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −7.026th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 107.927th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 114.722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 10–2927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.