Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists17
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints25
- Zion WilliamsonAssists8
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–108
- Q43.1shot clock turnover124–108
- Q424.0Harry Giles III defensive rebound124–108
- Q428.2Jose Alvarado misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot124–108
- Q432.1Colin Castleton vs. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (Jose Alvarado gains possession)124–108
- Q432.1Pelicans defensive team rebound124–108
- Q434.0Skylar Mays misses two point shot124–108
- Q443.1Jose Alvarado makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cody Zeller assists)124–108
- Q449.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound124–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:54Rui Hachimura makes 22-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 9 – 4 NO · LAL 56% → 62% +6LAL 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q15:21Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)LAL 17 – 13 NO · NO 33% → 39% +6NO 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q13:04Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)LAL 24 – 15 NO · LAL 65% → 71% +6LAL 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q10.0Brandon Ingram makes 29-foot three pointer (Jose Alvarado assists)LAL 28 – 24 NO · NO 32% → 39% +7NO 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q210:04D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 37 – 26 NO · LAL 70% → 76% +6LAL 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1
- LAL 46%
- Fair odds
- LAL -108
- NO +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.9 – 116.4 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +18 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +27 Elo | NO 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 51.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 115.213th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 110.58th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +4.75th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 115.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 111.06th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.417th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 3018–21 | Road vs home | 21–1817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 2–1 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.