New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints28
- Dyson DanielsAssists7
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds8
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints33
- Draymond GreenAssists11
- Draymond GreenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–109
- Q41.1Jose Alvarado defensive rebound114–109
- Q42.1Stephen Curry misses 24-foot three point jumper114–109
- Q49.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2114–109
- Q49.0Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2113–109
- Q49.0Jose Alvarado enters the game for Zion Williamson112–109
- Q49.0(00:09) [Warriors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Warriors] charged with a timeout112–109
- Q49.0Warriors Full timeout112–109
- Q49.0Andrew Wiggins personal foul112–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:44Chris Paul makes 27-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)NO 92 – 86 GS · GS 16% → 26% +10GS 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q48:16Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)NO 92 – 89 GS · GS 25% → 39% +13GS 25% → 39%+13 pts
- Q47:12Stephen Curry makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Draymond Green assists)NO 95 – 92 GS · GS 24% → 38% +14GS 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q41:03CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three pointerNO 112 – 106 GS · NO 85% → 98% +13NO 85% → 98%+13 pts
- Q456.1Stephen Curry makes 27-foot step back jumpshotNO 112 – 109 GS · GS 1% → 14% +12GS 1% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 62%
- Fair odds
- GS -144
- NO +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.7 – 113.4 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | GS and NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | +26 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +83 Elo | GS 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 117.88th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 115.217th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +2.712th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–14 | Road vs home | 20–1919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–1 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.