Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints32
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–101
- Q40.0(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)99–101
- Q40.1Jamal Murray makes 15-foot two point shot99–101
- Q412.1Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound99–99
- Q416.1LeBron James misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot99–99
- Q430.0Jamal Murray makes 19-foot step back jumpshot99–99
- Q447.1LeBron James makes driving layup99–97
- Q457.1Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 297–97
- Q457.1Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 297–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:15Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)LAL 95 – 95 DEN · DEN 17% → 51% +34DEN 17% → 51%+34 pts
- Q41:03D'Angelo Russell makes driving layupLAL 97 – 95 DEN · LAL 49% → 75% +26LAL 49% → 75%+26 pts
- Q447.1LeBron James makes driving layupLAL 99 – 97 DEN · LAL 49% → 79% +29LAL 49% → 79%+29 pts
- Q430.0Jamal Murray makes 19-foot step back jumpshotLAL 99 – 99 DEN · DEN 16% → 51% +35DEN 16% → 51%+35 pts
- Q40.1Jamal Murray makes 15-foot two point shotLAL 99 – 101 DEN · DEN 50% → 100% +50DEN 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 62%
- Fair odds
- DEN -128
- LAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.3 – 117.2 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +39 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +87 Elo | DEN 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.6 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–4 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.