Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints32
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Jamal MurrayAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–114
- Q411.1shot clock turnover103–114
- Q435.1LeBron James makes 1-foot two point shot103–114
- Q446.0Jamal Murray makes alley oop layup (Nikola Jokic assists)101–114
- Q41:01LeBron James out of bounds lost ball turnover101–112
- Q41:11Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot dunk (Aaron Gordon assists)101–112
- Q41:20Aaron Gordon defensive rebound101–110
- Q41:20LeBron James misses two point shot101–110
- Q41:21LeBron James offensive rebound101–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:32Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)LAL 60 – 60 DEN · DEN 46% → 55% +9DEN 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q39:51Austin Reaves makes 29-foot three pointerLAL 65 – 62 DEN · LAL 45% → 55% +9LAL 45% → 55%+9 pts
- Q37:58Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)LAL 67 – 67 DEN · DEN 45% → 54% +10DEN 45% → 54%+10 pts
- Q36:15Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)LAL 71 – 72 DEN · DEN 47% → 57% +10DEN 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q34:36Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)LAL 75 – 79 DEN · DEN 57% → 67% +10DEN 57% → 67%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 62%
- Fair odds
- DEN -131
- LAL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.0 – 118.0 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1615 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +34 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +84 Elo | DEN 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.6 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–3 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.