Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints27
- Kyle AndersonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Nuggets- Aaron GordonPoints20
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–80
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–80
- Q418.2Leonard Miller defensive rebound106–80
- Q424.1Zeke Nnaji misses 12-foot two point shot106–80
- Q428.1Zeke Nnaji offensive rebound106–80
- Q431.1Hunter Tyson misses 25-foot three point jumper106–80
- Q443.0Nuggets defensive team rebound106–80
- Q443.0Zeke Nnaji blocks Luka Garza 's 3-foot driving layup106–80
- Q459.1Jalen Pickett makes 17-foot pullup jump shot106–80
- Q41:22Wendell Moore Jr. makes driving layup106–78
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:42Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 15 – 12 DEN · DEN 45% → 52% +7DEN 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q15:14Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIN 18 – 12 DEN · MIN 49% → 55% +7MIN 49% → 55%+7 pts
- Q14:12Aaron Gordon makes 24-foot three point shot (Jamal Murray assists)MIN 18 – 17 DEN · DEN 49% → 56% +7DEN 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q11:32Justin Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 24 – 20 DEN · DEN 41% → 48% +7DEN 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q211:40Naz Reid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 31 – 20 DEN · MIN 62% → 68% +7MIN 62% → 68%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 56%
- Fair odds
- DEN -142
- MIN +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 104.1 – 106.8 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1658 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +45 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +42 Elo | DEN 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 3–2 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.