Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–108
- Q40.0Lakers offensive team rebound106–108
- Q40.0Taurean Prince misses 40-foot three point jumper106–108
- Q44.0Jamal Murray makes 14-foot pullup jump shot106–108
- Q426.1LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2106–106
- Q426.1Taurean Prince enters the game for D'Angelo Russell105–106
- Q426.1LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2105–106
- Q426.1Michael Porter Jr. shooting foul104–106
- Q438.0Lakers defensive team rebound104–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:12Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three pointer (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 102 – 101 DEN · LAL 29% → 57% +28LAL 29% → 57%+28 pts
- Q41:46Nikola Jokic makes two point shotLAL 102 – 103 DEN · DEN 42% → 63% +21DEN 42% → 63%+21 pts
- Q41:33LeBron James makes driving layup (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 104 – 103 DEN · LAL 37% → 59% +23LAL 37% → 59%+23 pts
- Q41:07Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)LAL 104 – 106 DEN · DEN 38% → 77% +38DEN 38% → 77%+38 pts
- Q44.0Jamal Murray makes 14-foot pullup jump shotLAL 106 – 108 DEN · DEN 50% → >99% +49DEN 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 66%
- Fair odds
- DEN -162
- LAL +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.4 – 116.1 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1620 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +52 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | LAL crossed 1 time zone and DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +114 Elo | DEN 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.6 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–6 DEN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.
- Apr 27DEN 108 @ LAL 119PlayoffsPicked DEN 53%Miss
- Apr 25DEN 112 @ LAL 105PlayoffsPicked LAL 51%Miss
- Apr 22LAL 99 @ DEN 101PlayoffsPicked DEN 56%Hit
- Apr 20LAL 103 @ DEN 114PlayoffsPicked DEN 57%Hit
- Mar 2DEN 124 @ LAL 114Picked LAL 56%Miss
- Feb 8DEN 114 @ LAL 106Picked DEN 51%Hit
- Oct 24LAL 107 @ DEN 119Picked DEN 57%Hit