Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints33
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints30
- Anthony DavisAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds23
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–119
- Q41.1shot clock turnover108–119
- Q425.1Anthony Davis defensive rebound108–119
- Q427.1Michael Porter Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper108–119
- Q429.0Nuggets offensive team rebound108–119
- Q429.1Jamal Murray misses 19-foot two point shot108–119
- Q437.0Jamal Murray enters the game for Christian Braun108–119
- Q437.0Nuggets Full timeout108–119
- Q437.0Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2108–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:34D'Angelo Russell makes 28-foot three pointerDEN 25 – 33 LAL · LAL 60% → 67% +7LAL 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q25:56Justin Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 37 – 41 LAL · DEN 34% → 42% +8DEN 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q25:11Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 37 – 44 LAL · LAL 58% → 66% +8LAL 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q33:20Gabe Vincent makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)DEN 70 – 80 LAL · LAL 73% → 81% +8LAL 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q32:03Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)DEN 72 – 84 LAL · LAL 80% → 87% +7LAL 80% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 59%
- Fair odds
- DEN -112
- LAL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.8 – 113.9 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | +29 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +66 Elo | DEN 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 118.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 117.323rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +0.819th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 114.115th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 102.64th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 28–147th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 6–0 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.