Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints43
- Mike ConleyAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–99
- Q421.0Rudy Gobert defensive rebound106–99
- Q422.1Aaron Gordon misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot106–99
- Q427.1Anthony Edwards makes driving layup106–99
- Q434.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)104–99
- Q438.1Nuggets Full timeout104–96
- Q438.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2104–96
- Q438.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2103–96
- Q438.1Aaron Gordon personal foul102–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:49Mike Conley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 80 – 77 DEN · MIN 47% → 61% +14MIN 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q48:35Jamal Murray makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIN 80 – 80 DEN · DEN 39% → 53% +15DEN 39% → 53%+15 pts
- Q46:24Christian Braun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)MIN 84 – 84 DEN · DEN 36% → 53% +17DEN 36% → 53%+17 pts
- Q45:56Naz Reid makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 87 – 84 DEN · MIN 47% → 65% +17MIN 47% → 65%+17 pts
- Q44:20Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 94 – 88 DEN · MIN 68% → 84% +16MIN 68% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 56%
- Fair odds
- DEN -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 104.5 – 107.0 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1648 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +55 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +44 Elo | DEN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.