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Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Nuggets

57-25

70–115

at

Home

Timberwolves

56-26

DEN 49%MIN 51%

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Target Center · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.

MIN favored DEN favored97 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIN50%DEN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Nuggets
Timberwolves

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game70–115
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter70–115
  • Q423.2Julian Strawther makes two point shot (Peyton Watson assists)70–115
  • Q428.2Peyton Watson defensive rebound68–115
  • Q432.0Monte Morris misses 23-foot three point jumper68–115
  • Q443.1Josh Minott defensive rebound68–115
  • Q445.1Julian Strawther misses driving floating jump shot68–115
  • Q41:00Hunter Tyson defensive rebound68–115
  • Q41:02Luka Garza misses free throw 2 of 268–115
  • Q41:02Luka Garza makes free throw 1 of 268–115

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q19:03Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 9 – 2 MIN · DEN 58% → 64% +6
  2. Q18:09Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot step back jumpshot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)DEN 9 – 5 MIN · MIN 36% → 42% +6
  3. Q16:51Karl-Anthony Towns makes 1-foot driving dunk (Mike Conley assists)DEN 9 – 11 MIN · MIN 51% → 55% +4
  4. Q14:32Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)DEN 9 – 18 MIN · MIN 64% → 70% +6
  5. Q28:32Aaron Gordon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 24 – 35 MIN · DEN 18% → 24% +5

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Timberwolves 51%

Toss-upHit
DEN 49%MIN 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
MIN 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DEN -0.5
MIN 49%
Fair odds
MIN -104
DEN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DEN 104.7 – 105.0 MIN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDENMINWhy
Team rating16431628Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+34+4DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Travel−12−12DEN crossed 1 time zone and MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsDEN +9 EloDEN 51.3%
Market-implied ratingsMIN 51.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIN 51.0%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves compared, with each team's league rank
DENStatMIN
14th of 30114.9Points scored113.018th of 30
6th of 30109.6Points allowed106.51st of 30
4th of 30+5.3Margin+6.53rd of 30
5th of 30116.6Offense rating113.716th of 30
10th of 30111.2Defense rating107.21st of 30
27th of 3098.3Pace98.822nd of 30
10th of 306–4Last 106–410th of 30
7th of 3024–17Road vs home30–115th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Nuggets

+34 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Timberwolves

+4 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

NuggetsTimberwolves
15001550160016501700NovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

DEN 5–4 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.