Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints23
- Anthony EdwardsAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints40
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Aaron GordonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–112
- Q421.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound97–112
- Q424.1Karl-Anthony Towns misses 25-foot three point jumper97–112
- Q430.0shot clock turnover97–112
- Q454.0Karl-Anthony Towns makes layup (Anthony Edwards assists)97–112
- Q41:02Naz Reid defensive rebound95–112
- Q41:05Nikola Jokic misses 16-foot two point shot95–112
- Q41:28Christian Braun defensive rebound95–112
- Q41:31Naz Reid misses 26-foot three point jumper95–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:42Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)MIN 39 – 46 DEN · DEN 66% → 73% +7DEN 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q22:03Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 42 – 46 DEN · MIN 26% → 34% +7MIN 26% → 34%+7 pts
- Q310:48Karl-Anthony Towns makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 51 – 50 DEN · MIN 39% → 48% +9MIN 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q310:34Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 51 – 53 DEN · DEN 52% → 61% +9DEN 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q37:38Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIN 57 – 62 DEN · DEN 61% → 70% +9DEN 61% → 70%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 58%
- Fair odds
- DEN -134
- MIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 103.8 – 106.0 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1633 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +30 | MIN: Missing Mike Conley −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +54 Elo | DEN 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.5 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–15 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+5 Elo- Mike Conley sore right achilles tendon−6 Elo
Nuggets
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 4–4 DEN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- May 12DEN 115 @ MIN 107PlayoffsPicked MIN 56%Miss
- May 10DEN 117 @ MIN 90PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Miss
- May 6MIN 106 @ DEN 80PlayoffsPicked DEN 59%Miss
- May 4MIN 106 @ DEN 99PlayoffsPicked DEN 58%Miss
- Apr 10MIN 107 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Mar 29MIN 111 @ DEN 98Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Mar 19DEN 115 @ MIN 112Picked DEN 62%Hit
- Nov 1DEN 89 @ MIN 110Picked DEN 67%Miss