Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds14
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints16
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–87
- Q46.0Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound102–87
- Q49.0Jalen Pickett misses 25-foot three point jumper102–87
- Q418.2Trey Alexander defensive rebound102–87
- Q423.0Dillon Jones misses 24-foot three point jumper102–87
- Q432.1Dillon Jones defensive rebound102–87
- Q436.0Hunter Tyson misses 23-foot three point jumper102–87
- Q450.0Hunter Tyson defensive rebound102–87
- Q452.1Ajay Mitchell misses two point shot102–87
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:22Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotOKC 40 – 32 DEN · OKC 59% → 66% +7OKC 59% → 66%+7 pts
- Q23:52Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)OKC 49 – 45 DEN · DEN 35% → 42% +8DEN 35% → 42%+8 pts
- Q23:37Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 52 – 45 DEN · OKC 58% → 66% +8OKC 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q311:36Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotOKC 61 – 51 DEN · OKC 67% → 75% +8OKC 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q310:55Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)OKC 61 – 54 DEN · DEN 25% → 33% +8DEN 25% → 33%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML OKC +110 / DEN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 58.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -119
- OKC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.0 – 115.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +31 | OKC: Usual rotation · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +57 Elo | DEN 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.1 | Points scored | 114.914th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.4 | Margin | +5.34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 111.210th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 3–1 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.