Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints29
- Kyrie IrvingAssists11
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–110
- Q423.1Aaron Wiggins makes free throw 2 of 2119–110
- Q423.1Josh Green enters the game for Kyrie Irving119–109
- Q423.1Aaron Wiggins makes free throw 1 of 2119–109
- Q423.1Dante Exum personal foul119–108
- Q425.1Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2119–108
- Q425.1Dwight Powell enters the game for Luka Doncic118–108
- Q425.1Dante Exum enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.118–108
- Q425.1Jaden Hardy enters the game for Daniel Gafford118–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:51Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 70 – 68 OKC · OKC 45% → 54% +9OKC 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q38:51Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 72 – 75 OKC · OKC 59% → 68% +9OKC 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q38:36P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumperDAL 75 – 75 OKC · DAL 32% → 41% +9DAL 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q35:56Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 80 – 77 OKC · DAL 42% → 52% +10DAL 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q49:02Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDAL 104 – 95 OKC · DAL 72% → 82% +11DAL 72% → 82%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 69%
- Fair odds
- OKC -175
- DAL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 108.6 – 112.9 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1661 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +48 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +138 Elo | OKC 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +7.42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–4 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.