Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints24
- Chet HolmgrenAssists5
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds10
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints20
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–89
- Q414.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound97–89
- Q417.1CJ McCollum misses 22-foot step back jumpshot97–89
- Q424.1CJ McCollum defensive rebound97–89
- Q426.0Jalen Williams misses free throw 2 of 297–89
- Q426.0Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 297–89
- Q426.0Trey Murphy III personal take foul96–89
- Q426.0Jalen Williams defensive rebound96–89
- Q428.0Brandon Ingram misses 22-foot three point jumper96–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:39Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 73 – 75 NO · OKC 36% → 49% +13OKC 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q410:16Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)OKC 73 – 78 NO · NO 51% → 64% +13NO 51% → 64%+13 pts
- Q48:01Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point shot (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 80 – 80 NO · OKC 42% → 57% +15OKC 42% → 57%+15 pts
- Q47:19Josh Giddey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 83 – 80 NO · OKC 57% → 72% +15OKC 57% → 72%+15 pts
- Q44:21Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three pointer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 88 – 82 NO · OKC 74% → 88% +14OKC 74% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 71%
- Fair odds
- OKC -201
- NO +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 112.3 – 107.0 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | −54 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +157 Elo | OKC 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.1 | Points scored | 115.113th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 110.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.4 | Margin | +4.46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 5–1 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.