New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints21
- CJ McCollumAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds20
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists4
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–94
- Q41.1Pelicans offensive team rebound92–94
- Q41.1CJ McCollum misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot92–94
- Q414.0CJ McCollum enters the game for Larry Nance Jr.92–94
- Q414.0Pelicans Full timeout92–94
- Q414.0Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 292–94
- Q414.0Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for CJ McCollum92–93
- Q414.0Thunder offensive team rebound92–93
- Q414.0Chet Holmgren misses free throw 1 of 292–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:58Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)NO 88 – 88 OKC · NO 26% → 46% +20NO 26% → 46%+20 pts
- Q41:36Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 20-foot pullup jump shotNO 90 – 90 OKC · OKC 31% → 53% +22OKC 31% → 53%+22 pts
- Q432.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotNO 90 – 92 OKC · OKC 52% → 85% +33OKC 52% → 85%+33 pts
- Q426.1CJ McCollum makes 11-foot two point shotNO 92 – 93 OKC · NO 5% → 28% +23NO 5% → 28%+23 pts
- Q414.0Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2NO 92 – 94 OKC · OKC 78% → 94% +16OKC 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 65%
- Fair odds
- OKC -182
- NO +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.5 – 115.1 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1617 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +1 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +110 Elo | OKC 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +7.42nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–14 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.