Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints24
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds9
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints19
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Larry Nance Jr.Rebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–85
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–85
- Q416.0Dyson Daniels makes 6-foot two point shot106–85
- Q423.1Aaron Wiggins makes driving layup106–83
- Q441.0Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound104–83
- Q443.1Matt Ryan misses 24-foot three point jumper104–83
- Q447.1Aaron Wiggins bad pass (Dyson Daniels steals)104–83
- Q453.0Dyson Daniels bad pass (Cason Wallace steals)104–83
- Q41:09E.J. Liddell defensive rebound104–83
- Q41:12Kenrich Williams misses 18-foot step back jumpshot104–83
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:23Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 5 – 7 NO · OKC 51% → 58% +6OKC 51% → 58%+6 pts
- Q29:03Herbert Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Larry Nance Jr. assists)OKC 31 – 29 NO · NO 28% → 35% +7NO 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q25:58Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)OKC 38 – 36 NO · NO 28% → 35% +7NO 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q24:13Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot step back jumpshotOKC 43 – 39 NO · OKC 62% → 70% +7OKC 62% → 70%+7 pts
- Q23:55Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 46 – 39 NO · OKC 70% → 76% +7OKC 70% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 66%
- Fair odds
- OKC -166
- NO +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 112.8 – 108.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −41 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +112 Elo | OKC 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.1 | Points scored | 115.113th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 110.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.4 | Margin | +4.46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.417th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 21–1918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 4–1 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.