Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints20
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Daniel GaffordRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints29
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–117
- Q47.1shot clock turnover95–117
- Q432.1Dante Exum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)95–117
- Q444.1Jaylin Williams makes 14-foot jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)92–117
- Q41:01Jaylin Williams defensive rebound92–115
- Q41:03A.J. Lawson misses 25-foot three point jumper92–115
- Q41:15Ousmane Dieng makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Jaylin Williams assists)92–115
- Q41:37Kenrich Williams defensive rebound92–113
- Q41:38Dante Exum misses 18-foot pullup jump shot92–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:56P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 62 – 66 OKC · DAL 23% → 31% +8DAL 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q37:25Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 65 – 66 OKC · DAL 31% → 41% +9DAL 31% → 41%+9 pts
- Q37:09Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three pointer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 65 – 69 OKC · OKC 59% → 69% +9OKC 59% → 69%+9 pts
- Q36:07Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 67 – 72 OKC · OKC 63% → 72% +9OKC 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q35:19Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)DAL 69 – 77 OKC · OKC 72% → 80% +8OKC 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Fair odds
- OKC -149
- DAL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.6 – 112.6 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +43 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +96 Elo | OKC 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 120.13rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 112.711th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +7.42nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 33–82nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–3 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.