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Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Thunder

57-25

100–96

at

Home

Mavericks

50-32

OKC 50%DAL 50%

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American Airlines Center · TNT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored OKC favored106 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4DAL50%OKC

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mavericks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game100–96
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–96
  • Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound100–96
  • Q40.1Luka Doncic misses 57-foot three point shot100–96
  • Q41.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2100–96
  • Q41.1Cason Wallace enters the game for Josh Giddey99–96
  • Q41.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 299–96
  • Q41.1P.J. Washington personal take foul98–96
  • Q43.0Josh Giddey enters the game for Jaylin Williams98–96
  • Q43.0Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Dereck Lively II98–96

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q43:24Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 89 – 86 DAL · OKC 50% → 72% +22
  2. Q42:36Dereck Lively II makes alley oop dunk shot (Luka Doncic assists)OKC 89 – 88 DAL · DAL 25% → 41% +16
  3. Q42:14Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 92 – 88 DAL · OKC 59% → 83% +24
  4. Q41:52Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Luka Doncic assists)OKC 92 – 91 DAL · DAL 15% → 40% +25
  5. Q41:29Jalen Williams makes 1-foot driving dunkOKC 94 – 91 DAL · OKC 62% → 81% +20

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Mavericks 50%

Toss-upMiss
OKC 50%DAL 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DAL 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
OKC -0.5
DAL 47%
Fair odds
DAL -101
OKC +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
OKC 110.3 – 110.4 DAL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorOKCDALWhy
Team rating16391597Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+45+31OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsOKC +20 EloOKC 52.9%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 50.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 50.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks compared, with each team's league rank
OKCStatDAL
3rd of 30120.1Points scored117.97th of 30
11th of 30112.7Points allowed115.620th of 30
2nd of 30+7.4Margin+2.214th of 30
3rd of 30117.5Offense rating115.68th of 30
4th of 30110.3Defense rating113.518th of 30
10th of 30101.5Pace101.86th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 107–33rd of 30
7th of 3024–17Road vs home25–1612th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Thunder

+45 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Mavericks

+31 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

ThunderMavericks
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

OKC 4–3 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.