Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds10
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints27
- Kyrie IrvingAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–105
- Q41.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound101–105
- Q41.1Jalen Williams misses 25-foot step back jumpshot101–105
- Q46.0Jalen Williams defensive rebound101–105
- Q47.0Luka Doncic misses free throw 2 of 2101–105
- Q47.0Derrick Jones Jr. enters the game for Daniel Gafford101–105
- Q47.0Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Dereck Lively II101–105
- Q47.0Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2101–105
- Q47.0Jaylin Williams enters the game for Luguentz Dort101–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.1Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Daniel Gafford assists)OKC 78 – 82 DAL · DAL 54% → 66% +12DAL 54% → 66%+12 pts
- Q46:42Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot step back jumpshotOKC 89 – 92 DAL · OKC 20% → 34% +14OKC 20% → 34%+14 pts
- Q43:13Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 95 – 98 DAL · OKC 11% → 28% +16OKC 11% → 28%+16 pts
- Q42:43Jalen Williams makes 7-foot two point shot (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 97 – 100 DAL · OKC 14% → 26% +12OKC 14% → 26%+12 pts
- Q42:11Luka Doncic makes two point shotOKC 97 – 102 DAL · DAL 77% → 89% +12DAL 77% → 89%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1
- OKC 55%
- Fair odds
- OKC -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 111.2 – 110.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1646 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | +36 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +32 Elo | OKC 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.1 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.4 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 115.68th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–17 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 4–2 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.